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Lula Will Likely Win Brazil’s Election and Then Things Get Hard

How much will Lula's dramatic victory in the presidential election make a difference?

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Lula Will Likely Win Brazil’s Election and Then Things Get Hard

How much will Lula’s dramatic victory in the presidential election make a difference?

Luis Inacio Lula da Silva‘s stunning victory in Brazil’s presidential election shocked the world.

Who was jailed for bribery while in office, barred from running for office — a case later dismissed in court, and then running again in a presidential election — is an understatement to say the least.

But that’s what happened to the 77-year-old left-wing leader.

He defeated right-wing President Bolsonaro with 50.9 percent of the vote in Brazil’s second round of presidential elections.


Opinion polls show signs

Since the beginning of the presidential campaign, polls have been showing glimpses of Lula winning.

But after the first round of voting, when the vote gap between the two candidates was found — narrower than expected — there were also questions about the election.

But after the second round of elections, Lula da Silva won with 50.9 percent of the vote — compared with 49.1 percent for her rival, incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro.

Lula won with less than two percent of the vote.

BBC analyst Bruno Ferreira Gases said Lula da Silva won a majority of votes in Brazil’s poorer northern regions and also gained more support among younger voters and women.

Bolsonaro’s political base, on the other hand, is the relatively wealthy Brazilians in the south and southeast of Brazil — in addition to those who are socially conservative, but also support the Christian right, fundamentalist anti-abortion and national identity politics.

However, in the view of mr, the results of the second stage. Bolsonaro has failed to win over moderate voters at this stage – Mr. garage.


“Good News for Democracy”

After the results of the vote were announced, Bolsonaro’s camp fell silent. gentlemen. Bolsonaro himself – as of last report – has yet to concede defeat or speak to the triumphant Lula.

However, the way his close aides spoke to the media — there was a hint of acceptance of the results.

Oliver Stuenkel, professor of international relations at the Getulio Vargas Foundation in São Paulo, told the BBC the world was waiting for his response, but one thing was certain: his defeat was “good news for democracy” .

Over the past four years, Bolsonaro has sought to undermine accountability, increasing pressure on the judiciary and civil society. –He says.

From this perspective, Lula’s victory is undoubtedly good news for other democracies around the world, especially at a time when democracy is going backwards.



What changes will President Lula bring?

Lula was president of Brazil from 2003 to 2010.

During this time, his state-led economic growth and social policies lifted millions out of poverty.

I believe this time he will continue the same policy. But BBC analysts say Lula may struggle to succeed in a post-coronavirus economic environment.

Especially his enemies in Congress. Bolsonaro’s supporters remain strong and he could face formidable obstacles.

But Brazil’s environmental agenda is about to change significantly – says Abrao Neto, Brazil’s former foreign trade minister and senior fellow at the Adrien Ulster Latin America Center.

Lula said he would fight Amazon deforestation and give Brazil a leadership role in global climate negotiations.

In this regard, Bolsonaro’s defeat will bring a sense of relief to Brazil and beyond, especially among environmental activists – Bruno Ferreira Gases believes.

Lula jailed in corruption case

Former union leader and steel mill worker Luis Inacio Lula da Silva was born into a poor family.

Lula’s popularity soared during his presidency from 2003 to 2010 – but he and his Workers’ party have since been marred by a recession and corruption cases.

Lulada Silver was jailed. Although the charges were later dismissed, Lula was prevented from running in the 2018 election. He was disqualified from public office.

He is accused of taking bribes from a construction company in exchange for a contract with Petrobras.

He was found guilty and jailed for 580 days, but the charges against him were later dismissed and he returned to politics.

Bolsonaro is the first president not to win re-election
On the other hand, right-wing outgoing President Jair Bolsonaro emerged from the back row of Brazil’s parliament.

His conservative coalition won a term but lost massive public support, not least because of Brazil’s high death toll during the coronavirus pandemic.

This is an important event. Bolsonaro is the first leader in the history of democratic Brazil to lose re-election – said Jason Marzak, senior director of the Adrian Astor Center for Latin America.

His words – despite Bolsonaro’s narrow defeat, the incumbent’s refusal shows Brazilian society is clearly frustrated with the current state of affairs and will have knock-on effects for democracies around the world.

Will the rise of right-wing populists around the world be alarming?

Arguably, in the second decade of this century, right-wing and populist or “populist” leaders have won elections in many countries around the world.

That was when Jair Bolsonaro won in Brazil.

Following the victories of leaders such as Donald Trump in the United States, Orban in Hungary, Modi in India and Rodrigo Duterte in the Philippines, a worldwide trend of populist leaders is said to have formed.

But does Donald Trump’s defeat, now Bolsonaro’s departure and Lula’s re-emergence, send a different message?

Bruno Ferreira is saying, now is not the time to say that.

First: Lula’s victory was small, and if it went a little sideways, the results could backfire — he said — except that polls show far-right Republicans can do well in the U.S. midterm elections. America, they won in Italy, they were stronger in France, so goodbye to right-wing populism. On the road – no reason to think so yet.


Pink wave?

Brazil is not only the largest country in South America, but also an important member of the BRICS alliance, and its international importance is no less than this.

Many said Lula’s victory in Brazil set off a “pink wave” in South America.

Thanks to Lula’s victory, Brazil’s name is now associated with the left’s success in Latin America’s major economic powerhouses, from Mexico to Argentina.

Lula’s victory echoed a shift in South American politics shortly after the left won elections in two other countries in the region, Colombia and Chile.

But it shows that Latin American politics is leaning to the left – an idea of ​​Mr. Marzak

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